As 2025 comes to a close, national housing headlines are finally beginning to align more closely with what many local markets have been experiencing firsthand. A recent Homes.com analysis took a “housing market gut check,” evaluating which forecasts came true in 2025 and what economists expect heading into 2026. When viewed alongside Schaub Team’s year-end performance data, a clear picture emerges: real estate didn’t stall—it recalibrated.

Mortgage Rates: Higher for Longer, but No Longer Shocking

Nationally, one of the biggest takeaways from 2025 was that mortgage rates stayed higher than many hoped—but not high enough to halt the market. Homes.com notes that while rate cuts were slower than predicted, buyers adapted rather than exited.

Locally, Schaub Team data confirms this shift in behavior. In 2025, 74% of Schaub Team sales by dollar volume were cash, while mortgage-financed transactions made up a smaller—but steady—share. This reflects a market where buyers adjusted expectations, leaned on equity, or waited for the right opportunity rather than chasing the perfect rate.

Takeaway: Rates influenced strategy, not demand.

Sales Activity: Slower Nationally, Stronger Locally

National forecasts entering 2025 anticipated modest growth at best—and that largely played out. Existing home sales remained constrained by limited inventory, but price stability held.

In contrast, Schaub Team experienced a 33.8% year-over-year increase in transactions and a 32.3% increase in sales volume, outperforming both local and national trends. This growth underscores how hyper-local expertise matters most in a supply-constrained market.

Takeaway: While national markets found their footing, Leelanau buyers and sellers stayed active—with the right guidance.

Inventory Constraints Continue to Shape Buyer Behavior

Homes.com highlights that inventory shortages—not affordability alone—remained the biggest limiter nationwide in 2025. That theme resonates strongly at the local level.

Schaub Team’s data shows that 70% of residential sales were under $1,000,000, while still maintaining a strong presence in the luxury segment, where 62% of total residential sales volume came from $1M+ properties. Buyers weren’t retreating—they were becoming more selective and strategic.

Takeaway: Limited inventory didn’t slow the market—it refined it.

Cash Is King—but Financing Still Has a Role

Nationally, the Homes.com article points to an increase in cash buyers as a defining feature of 2025, particularly among move-up buyers and those relocating from higher-cost markets.

Locally, that trend is amplified but balanced. While cash dominated high-end transactions, mortgage buyers still made up 40% of transactions, particularly in mid-range price points where value and timing mattered most.

Takeaway: Financing didn’t disappear—it simply became more intentional.

Looking Ahead to 2026: Cautious Optimism, Not a Reset

Homes.com concludes that 2026 is expected to bring incremental improvements, not dramatic shifts—an outlook echoed by the National Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist, who forecasts:

• 14% growth in existing home sales

• Mortgage rates stabilizing around 6%

• Steady, moderate job growth

Schaub Team’s 2025 performance positions clients well for this next phase—one defined by prepared buyers, realistic sellers, and strategy-driven success rather than speculation.

Bottom Line

National data helps frame the conversation—but local results tell the real story. While 2025 challenged assumptions, it rewarded experience, preparation, and adaptability. As we move into 2026, the market isn’t resetting—it’s normalizing, and opportunities remain strong for those who understand the nuances of Leelanau and the surrounding areas.

Our year-end market summary is on its way to many of our sphere clients by mail. If you’re not currently on our mailing list and would like to receive future market updates, insights, and local reports, we invite you to fill out the Contact Us form to be added.